LONDON (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs economists said there was a 60% chance that the United States would slap tariffs on the final $300 billion of Chinese imports, up from their previous estimate of 40%.
“Rhetoric in China has intensified… additional escalation looks likely from both sides, including tariff and non-tariff measures,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note late on Sunday.
After U.S. President Donald Trump announced a levy on imports from Mexico last week, GS saw a 70% chance of the tariffs on Mexican imports coming into effect at 5% on June 10 and a more than 50% chance they will rise to 10% on July 1.
GS economists also cut their chances the USMCA trade agreement will be ratified this year to 35% from 60% previously.
They saw a 40% chance of tariffs on cars coming into effect later this year, from 25% previously.
Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan, Writing by Helen Reid, Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky